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Once again, I join with my blogging colleagues in offering some predictions for the coming year. I have kept it to six, so as not to get carried away, and I kept them general, so I have a better chance of being right. Some are nearly no-brainers, but several are definitely going out on a limb. I will let the readers judge if I am “sawing” on the correct side or not.

Congressional Quarterly surveyed homeland security experts, a number of whom are contributors to Security Debrief, on the state and future of homeland security. Some of their views on the Obama administration’s best move in homeland security in 2009 are provided here.

Following the predictable Washington post-disaster pattern of shock, outrage, finger-pointing and sacrificial head-rolling, we are accelerating quickly past finger-pointing and onto the guillotine less than two weeks after Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab lit his pants on fire aboard Detroit-bound Northwest Flight 253. Most people assume that the airport screening layer in the system failed on Christmas Day, probably because that is the most visible part of our security system. But that assumption overlooks a layered system that now mitigates most threats.

Security Debrief contributor Asa Hutchinson was quoted on an NBC story about aviation security in the aftermath of Umar Abdulmutallab’s failed attempt to detonate a bomb aboard the Detroit-bound Northwest Flight 253 on December 25. Here are some excerpts from the story recapped by First Coast News.

By Edward Alden
The TSA’s decision to begin intrusive screenings of every passenger boarding a U.S.-bound flight from so-called “countries of interest” is an ill-considered response to the failed Christmas bombing attempt, and one that will do more to discourage friends of the United States than to deter its enemies.

In a January 1 front-page story in the Washington Post, TSA Administrator-nominee Errol Southers is described as having misled Congress about accessing confidential records. The article chronicles Southers’ clarification of testimony about how he had accessed a database to gain information on his estranged wife’s new boyfriend over twenty years ago when he was with the FBI. If all you read was the headline, you may think Erroll Southers was some rogue who knowingly went out and lied to Congress for some nefarious purpose. If you read the whole story though, the Post’s use of the word “misled” is a real-stretch.

I was watching a History channel documentary on the Nuremberg trials, and it offered some insights and “teachable moments,” as our President likes to say, when it comes to the trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and the rest of the bloody terrorists held at Guantanamo. In particular, the role of Hermann Goering as the leader, apologist and chief propagandist of his own gang of war criminals. The decision to hold the trials in New York has been made. So instead of re-arguing this point, let’s focus on what can be done to minimize al Qaeda turning the trial into a publicity bonanza for its radical and violent agenda.

Never one to pass up sticking my nose in the middle of an argument I can’t resist commenting on fellow bloggers Stewart Baker’s, David Olive’s and Sam Rosenfeld’s posts. Continuing the “questions” theme, policy musing and debates, like Stewart and David’s, are necessary for oversight committees and policy staff. What we haven’t solved are the less glamorous logistical problems, the unpopular questions about risk, and the truth about what technology can or can’t do for us. These are issues that need to be solved or answered before realizing a robust security system.

While we absolutely must examine the systemic failures that missed the terrorist and enabled him to board a US-bound aircraft — including the activities in isolation at both airports — we should also be examining exactly how this type of device wasn’t predicted and counter-measures developed.