Catastrophes are Predictable

Emergency Management Blog

Everyone seems surprised when some calamitous event occurs. They are labeled Black Swan events because they seem to come out of nowhere. “How could that have happened,” is the thinking that seems to pervade our thoughts as a whole. Rather than being surprised, Ted G. Lewis points out in his book Bak’s Sand Pile: Strategies for a Catastrophic World that these Black Swan events are really predictable and getting worse as we live in a more connected and interdependent world.