Adfero Group HSPI

I worry that we are sliding toward a “Guns of August” scenario over Tehran’s nuclear program. I worry that rhetoric and potential policy choices may bring about the very outcome we seek to avoid and unleash unforeseen and uncontrollable forces. Stoking this concern is the fact that despite a lack of intelligence suggesting Iran is moving toward weaponization, the chorus of those calling for direct military strikes to interdict such is sounding off with increasing frequency and volume. With this comes the risk that ex ante policy objectives may be getting ahead of both intelligence and strategy.

As the Obama administration continues to try to convince the American people they are securing the borders, their most recent budget request makes clear that “Amnesty by Any Means” remains the consistent mission. The latest installment is buried in the president’s homeland security budget, which includes provisions dotted throughout that, put together, would result in the dismantling of arguably the best border-related program that exists in federal government, US-VISIT, burying its capabilities in two of the most politicized of all government agencies, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.

President Obama’s recent apology to Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the unintended destruction of Qurans by U.S. military forces has set off a firestorm of action and debate. In Afghanistan, violent protests by those furious at the desecration of the Islamic holy book have killed a number of people and are even suspected as being contributing factors in the recent murders of two U.S. military officers this past week. Many have been critical of the president’s apology, but it brings up the question of whether the President should have apologized in the first place.

Umar Patek, indicted for his role in the 2002 Bali bombings, sits before five Indonesian judges. After years of being hunted, Patek must account for a campaign of premeditated murder and bomb-making. While his fate may not be as dramatic as that which befell Osama Bin Laden or Anwar al-Awlaki, there are at least three reasons why the result is every bit as important.

Al-Qaeda’s finances are at their weakest point in years due to a successful campaign to close off major sources of funding. In an article for the IHS Defense, Security, and Risk Consulting publication, I examine the options left to the group, which is increasingly turning to a model of low-level threats from individuals, rather than spectacular orchestrated attacks.

It’s definitely good news that there may be a drop in the number of Western foreign fighters traveling to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but it should come as no surprise. First and foremost, military actions – including the use of drones – have made the environment less hospitable for those traveling to it. With al Qaeda senior leaders on their back heels, now is the time to exploit this unique window of counterterrorism opportunity

The past couple of days have been bloody as Iran and its surrogates and Israel fight a dirty war of retribution using the streets of innocent countries as fields of battle. Additionally, the Iranian Navy continues to threaten the world’s oil shipping lanes with rhetoric and by making furtive moves against the U.S. Navy. I think we are very close to the tipping point of war with Iran, and in my opinion, the more time we wait, the more dangerous they become.

White House press secretary Jay Carney noted yesterday that the Administration is mulling over its options with respect to the nature of American involvement in such a potential force. It is well and proper for the Administration, at least in the discovery phase of policymaking, to entertain a broad range of policy options. Nevertheless, it needs to be evident to the President and his policy planners that any direct U.S. military involvement in a peacekeeping mission in Syria would be a major mistake.

If you mention the word “piracy” to someone, chances are images of Johnny Depp’s character from Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, but the sobering facts are that savagery on the high seas is very real and becoming a costly circumstance that deserves more attention. The waters around the Horn of Africa are growing more dangerous, with pirates from Somalia continuing attacks on commercial ships. These attacks contribute to the $7 billion-$12 billion that maritime piracy costs the international economy each year. To address and discuss this international challenge with national impact, the National Chamber Foundation will host “High Risk on the High Seas: The Economic Impact of Piracy in the Indian Ocean.”

A recent report by the UK-based think tank Chatham House describes the challenges associated with preparing for high-impact, low-probability events as well as potential global impacts. On the latter point, the report highlights how impacts will be felt well beyond an immediate disaster area, with the effects reverberating around the world because of our interconnected, global economy. In short, the best we can do is allocate resources based on risk assessments, and have a robust all-hazards plan to address the Black Swans that we could not have anticipated.

Last week, Thai police arrested Atris Hussein, a suspected Hizballah operative, at the Bangkok airport, while another suspect escaped. Elsewhere in the capital, authorities seized a large cache of chemical explosives composed of ammonium nitrate and urea fertilizer. These discoveries of Hizballah bombmaking in Thailand are no surprise given the group’s long history of terrorist operations in Southeast Asia.

The Israeli media has been awash in reports of an alleged Saudi hacker that goes by the online name of OxOmar and has posted the credit card information, national ID numbers and addresses of thousands of Israelis. According to recent reports, that person may turn out to be nineteen-year-old Omar Habib, who resides in Mexico. Some others, though less convincingly, have alleged that the origin of the attack lies in Iran. Ultimately, the origin and motivations of the cyber attack are less interesting than the nature of the vulnerability that it exposes.

A federal judge has issued a final judgment in a plaintiff’s case on behalf of 9/11 victim families ruling that Iran and Hezbollah together materially supported al Qaeda in committing 9/11. The case, Havlish v. Iran, provides overwhelming evidence in hundreds of pages of information, showing step by step Iran’s direct involvement in 9/11, including holding operational meetings inside Iran with al Qaeda and Hezbollah leadership to develop the 9/11 plan.

You could not find a greater difference between two men than Vaclav Havel and Kim Jong Il. One was a rock and roll loving playwright who led the Velvet Revolution that tossed Communist control of Czechoslovakia; the other, the heir of one of the world’s most brutal regimes that thought nothing of starving his own people to feed his vast military machine while walling his country off from contact with the outside world to create their own paradise. Somehow the cruel North Korean despot earned the moniker of “Dear Leader,” while the playwright went about his life speaking to the human spirit’s craving to be free. Both died this past weekend.

Federal Judge George Daniels announced in open court in New York City yesterday, in a case filed by families of 9/11 victims, that he was going to be signing an order within 24 hours stating Iran, Hezbollah, and al Qaeda are responsible for the 9/11 attacks. What we do know publicly is that Iran and Hezbollah not only provided terrorist travel assistance for the 9/11 hijackers to travel through Iran to attend Afghan terror training camps, but also that Hezbollah’s most senior operational leader, and chief liaison with Iran, Imad Mughniyah – and other Hezbollah operatives – traveled with the 9/11 hijackers in and out of Lebanon and in and out of Iran after these same hijackers had been issued visas to visit the United States.

Something interesting is going on in Janet Napolitano’s Department of Homeland Security. For the first two-plus years of the Obama administration, Secretary Napolitano’s priority was to plug security vulnerabilities, real or perceived. Arguments that her department was also responsible for encouraging trade and travel, and that security measures should therefore be carefully risk-targeted, were received with minimal enthusiasm. Recent DHS efforts, however, show a new paradigm in how the United States engages foreign partners, driven by the need to increase security while also promoting economic benefits.

Last week Secretary Napolitano gave a very good address to the Council on Foreign Relations. She highlighted the critical role of international partnerships in advancing homeland security and the commendable progress that DHS has made in that regard. But it could be much better. DHS’ efforts to expand programs like the Visa Waiver Program and C-TPAT have been ad hoc, leading to less expansion of these programs than warranted

On December 7, staff in the post room at the Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt identified a suspicious package while x-raying mail. Police were called and disarmed the device. The package/letter was addressed to the Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann and had a return address on the back stating it had come from the European [...]

Yesterday, President Obama and Prime Minister Harper unveiled the details of an updated “Beyond the Border Initiative,” which creates a shared border security responsibility. The 9/11 terrorist attacks triggered a virtually complete closing of the U.S.-Canada border. Although it quickly reopened, much tighter and more time-consuming security procedures were put in place. Recognizing the need to work to improve both security and efficiency, Washington and Ottawa have taken various measures over the years to better secure their common border.

The House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence has issued a report calling attention to a new threat to the U.S. homeland. Boko Harem has up to this point focused largely in Nigeria but has recently turned its violence toward international targets.