Adfero Group HSPI

A recent report by the UK-based think tank Chatham House describes the challenges associated with preparing for high-impact, low-probability events as well as potential global impacts. On the latter point, the report highlights how impacts will be felt well beyond an immediate disaster area, with the effects reverberating around the world because of our interconnected, global economy. In short, the best we can do is allocate resources based on risk assessments, and have a robust all-hazards plan to address the Black Swans that we could not have anticipated.

Last week, Thai police arrested Atris Hussein, a suspected Hizballah operative, at the Bangkok airport, while another suspect escaped. Elsewhere in the capital, authorities seized a large cache of chemical explosives composed of ammonium nitrate and urea fertilizer. These discoveries of Hizballah bombmaking in Thailand are no surprise given the group’s long history of terrorist operations in Southeast Asia.

The Israeli media has been awash in reports of an alleged Saudi hacker that goes by the online name of OxOmar and has posted the credit card information, national ID numbers and addresses of thousands of Israelis. According to recent reports, that person may turn out to be nineteen-year-old Omar Habib, who resides in Mexico. Some others, though less convincingly, have alleged that the origin of the attack lies in Iran. Ultimately, the origin and motivations of the cyber attack are less interesting than the nature of the vulnerability that it exposes.

A federal judge has issued a final judgment in a plaintiff’s case on behalf of 9/11 victim families ruling that Iran and Hezbollah together materially supported al Qaeda in committing 9/11. The case, Havlish v. Iran, provides overwhelming evidence in hundreds of pages of information, showing step by step Iran’s direct involvement in 9/11, including holding operational meetings inside Iran with al Qaeda and Hezbollah leadership to develop the 9/11 plan.

You could not find a greater difference between two men than Vaclav Havel and Kim Jong Il. One was a rock and roll loving playwright who led the Velvet Revolution that tossed Communist control of Czechoslovakia; the other, the heir of one of the world’s most brutal regimes that thought nothing of starving his own people to feed his vast military machine while walling his country off from contact with the outside world to create their own paradise. Somehow the cruel North Korean despot earned the moniker of “Dear Leader,” while the playwright went about his life speaking to the human spirit’s craving to be free. Both died this past weekend.

Federal Judge George Daniels announced in open court in New York City yesterday, in a case filed by families of 9/11 victims, that he was going to be signing an order within 24 hours stating Iran, Hezbollah, and al Qaeda are responsible for the 9/11 attacks. What we do know publicly is that Iran and Hezbollah not only provided terrorist travel assistance for the 9/11 hijackers to travel through Iran to attend Afghan terror training camps, but also that Hezbollah’s most senior operational leader, and chief liaison with Iran, Imad Mughniyah – and other Hezbollah operatives – traveled with the 9/11 hijackers in and out of Lebanon and in and out of Iran after these same hijackers had been issued visas to visit the United States.

Something interesting is going on in Janet Napolitano’s Department of Homeland Security. For the first two-plus years of the Obama administration, Secretary Napolitano’s priority was to plug security vulnerabilities, real or perceived. Arguments that her department was also responsible for encouraging trade and travel, and that security measures should therefore be carefully risk-targeted, were received with minimal enthusiasm. Recent DHS efforts, however, show a new paradigm in how the United States engages foreign partners, driven by the need to increase security while also promoting economic benefits.

Last week Secretary Napolitano gave a very good address to the Council on Foreign Relations. She highlighted the critical role of international partnerships in advancing homeland security and the commendable progress that DHS has made in that regard. But it could be much better. DHS’ efforts to expand programs like the Visa Waiver Program and C-TPAT have been ad hoc, leading to less expansion of these programs than warranted

On December 7, staff in the post room at the Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt identified a suspicious package while x-raying mail. Police were called and disarmed the device. The package/letter was addressed to the Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann and had a return address on the back stating it had come from the European [...]

Yesterday, President Obama and Prime Minister Harper unveiled the details of an updated “Beyond the Border Initiative,” which creates a shared border security responsibility. The 9/11 terrorist attacks triggered a virtually complete closing of the U.S.-Canada border. Although it quickly reopened, much tighter and more time-consuming security procedures were put in place. Recognizing the need to work to improve both security and efficiency, Washington and Ottawa have taken various measures over the years to better secure their common border.

The House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence has issued a report calling attention to a new threat to the U.S. homeland. Boko Harem has up to this point focused largely in Nigeria but has recently turned its violence toward international targets.

It has been four years since Congress made the bone-headed move mandating 100 percent screening of passenger plane cargo. Serious risk management is not Congress’s bag, as the institution demonstrates often. Fortunately, some elements within DHS sought to forge a new path, wisely piloting a program to conduct risk analyses of inbound air cargo and to focus DHS’s resources on the high-risk cargo, rather than attempting to subject all cargo to the same level of physical screening. This “risk-based” screening has been successful for DHS in other contexts.

Recent press reports suggest the world is closer to seeing a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Whether these particular reports are the result of credible leaks, disinformation campaigns, and/or journalistic speculation, it seems clear that there is a military option with respect to Iran’s nuclear sites and infrastructure. The United States Government will be doing it and its citizens a serious disservice if it does not put in place contingency plans for the “day after” a strike on Iran. Unfortunately, Iran has a menu of options with respect to striking back at the United States and larger Western interests.

I just spent some time visiting the Homeland Security folks at the Laredo port of entry and ARNORTH in San Antonio. I walked away from both visits with the same conclusion – if we want to solve the problem of our broken borders and deeply flawed immigration enforcement, we have got to let go of the “security blanket” of arguing that we just have to get the border under control and everything will be fine. We are never going to secure the border by fixating on the border.

Quirky though it was, U.S. officials are convinced that the recently exposed plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to Washington was the work of the vaunted Quds Force, the special operations branch of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). As policymakers consider how best to respond to Iran’s increasingly dangerous behavior they should look first to our own back yard south of the border.

The recently identified “Duqu” worm has raised a whole new set of issues. Seemingly a variant of the Stuxnet malware that got so much of the world’s attention, everyone is trying to figure out what it “means.” Stuxnet opened a new window, and Duqu is only the first of many. The rub is, unlike Stuxnet, which targeted Iranian centrifuges, Duqu may be coming directly at you and your systems.

For almost four years, disagreements among federal agencies have impeded U.S. participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Business Travel Card (ABTC) program. The ABTC is meant to expedite the travel of business men and women in the Asia-Pacific region as international trade and travel has grown explosively. Today marks a huge milestone as the House of Representatives passed the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Business Travel Cards Act of 2011. It allows U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to issue ABTCs to qualified business executives at no cost to the Treasury or taxpayers.

Over the last few weeks, events have led people with interesting points of view to make claims of moral equivalence between actions in and by the United States and actions by others. The first is between the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki by a U.S. drone strike and the planned assassination of the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the U.S. by agents of Iran. How can any reasonable person suggest that since the United States took out Awlaki, we have no business criticizing Iran for plotting to kill the Saudi Ambassador? Let’s make accurate comparisons and proper analyses as we evaluate events here and abroad.

The world is a better place without Moammar Qaddafi. It’s a wish that most of the planet has wanted to have fulfilled for some time. The brutal dictator inflicted death and suffering not just on his own people but on several continents. Yet, given the manner of his death, the United Nations, members of the international community, and other human rights groups are calling for a full-fledged investigation into the circumstances of his death. Some parties have even alleged that Qaddafi’s death may in fact be “war crime.” There are so many things to debate about the future of Libya, and this issue seems to be the least important.

When he was running for the presidency in 2007-08, there were not so subtle whispers and inferences made about whether a not-even-one-term U.S. senator from Illinois with no significant executive or security experience was up to the task of being Commander in Chief in a post-9/11 era. There is plenty to debate about the President’s leadership in other areas, but his critics of this area of his job performance look very small and at times, very petty. Through the use of SEAL Team Six, UAVs and other strategic military and intelligence assets, he’s sent an impressive list of bad guys to their ultimate judgment.