Umar Patek, indicted for his role in the 2002 Bali bombings, sits before five Indonesian judges. After years of being hunted, Patek must account for a campaign of premeditated murder and bomb-making. While his fate may not be as dramatic as that which befell Osama Bin Laden or Anwar al-Awlaki, there are at least three reasons why the result is every bit as important.
Al-Qaeda’s finances are at their weakest point in years due to a successful campaign to close off major sources of funding. In an article for the IHS Defense, Security, and Risk Consulting publication, I examine the options left to the group, which is increasingly turning to a model of low-level threats from individuals, rather than spectacular orchestrated attacks.
It’s definitely good news that there may be a drop in the number of Western foreign fighters traveling to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but it should come as no surprise. First and foremost, military actions – including the use of drones – have made the environment less hospitable for those traveling to it. With al Qaeda senior leaders on their back heels, now is the time to exploit this unique window of counterterrorism opportunity
The past couple of days have been bloody as Iran and its surrogates and Israel fight a dirty war of retribution using the streets of innocent countries as fields of battle. Additionally, the Iranian Navy continues to threaten the world’s oil shipping lanes with rhetoric and by making furtive moves against the U.S. Navy. I think we are very close to the tipping point of war with Iran, and in my opinion, the more time we wait, the more dangerous they become.
White House press secretary Jay Carney noted yesterday that the Administration is mulling over its options with respect to the nature of American involvement in such a potential force. It is well and proper for the Administration, at least in the discovery phase of policymaking, to entertain a broad range of policy options. Nevertheless, it needs to be evident to the President and his policy planners that any direct U.S. military involvement in a peacekeeping mission in Syria would be a major mistake.
If you mention the word “piracy” to someone, chances are images of Johnny Depp’s character from Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, but the sobering facts are that savagery on the high seas is very real and becoming a costly circumstance that deserves more attention. The waters around the Horn of Africa are growing more dangerous, with pirates from Somalia continuing attacks on commercial ships. These attacks contribute to the $7 billion-$12 billion that maritime piracy costs the international economy each year. To address and discuss this international challenge with national impact, the National Chamber Foundation will host “High Risk on the High Seas: The Economic Impact of Piracy in the Indian Ocean.”
A recent report by the UK-based think tank Chatham House describes the challenges associated with preparing for high-impact, low-probability events as well as potential global impacts. On the latter point, the report highlights how impacts will be felt well beyond an immediate disaster area, with the effects reverberating around the world because of our interconnected, global economy. In short, the best we can do is allocate resources based on risk assessments, and have a robust all-hazards plan to address the Black Swans that we could not have anticipated.
Last week, Thai police arrested Atris Hussein, a suspected Hizballah operative, at the Bangkok airport, while another suspect escaped. Elsewhere in the capital, authorities seized a large cache of chemical explosives composed of ammonium nitrate and urea fertilizer. These discoveries of Hizballah bombmaking in Thailand are no surprise given the group’s long history of terrorist operations in Southeast Asia.
The Israeli media has been awash in reports of an alleged Saudi hacker that goes by the online name of OxOmar and has posted the credit card information, national ID numbers and addresses of thousands of Israelis. According to recent reports, that person may turn out to be nineteen-year-old Omar Habib, who resides in Mexico. Some others, though less convincingly, have alleged that the origin of the attack lies in Iran. Ultimately, the origin and motivations of the cyber attack are less interesting than the nature of the vulnerability that it exposes.
A federal judge has issued a final judgment in a plaintiff’s case on behalf of 9/11 victim families ruling that Iran and Hezbollah together materially supported al Qaeda in committing 9/11. The case, Havlish v. Iran, provides overwhelming evidence in hundreds of pages of information, showing step by step Iran’s direct involvement in 9/11, including holding operational meetings inside Iran with al Qaeda and Hezbollah leadership to develop the 9/11 plan.
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